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This paper explores stock return predictability by exploiting the cross-section of oil futures prices. Motivated by the principal component analysis, we find the curvature factor of the oil futures curve predicts monthly stock returns: a 1% per month increase in the curvature factor predicts...
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This study investigates how prices respond to unanticipated crude oil inventory shocks and how quickly the markets incorporate news in crude oil, gasoline, and heating oil futures markets by using structured vector autoregression (SVAR) models based on EIA inventory report announcement and news...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013307507
This study investigates how prices respond to unanticipated crude oil inventory shocks and how quickly the markets incorporate news in crude oil, gasoline, and heating oil futures markets by using structured vector autoregression (SVAR) models based on EIA inventory report announcement and news...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013311571
demonstrate that geopolitical risk plays an important role in determining both oil price volatility and (to a lesser extent) stock … market volatility. An increase in geopolitical risk is associated with positive (negative) oil (stock) returns and is … correlation. This model shows short- and long-term volatility persistence for oil and stock prices, together with spillover …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012867250
A model-free methodology is used for the first time to estimate a daily volatility index (VIBEX-NEW) for the Spanish … display a negative, tight contemporaneous relationship with IBEX daily returns, contrary to other common volatility indicators …, as an implied volatility indicator or a GARCH(1,1) conditional volatility model. This relationship is approximately …
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This paper assesses variance risk premium and forecasts out-of-sample VIX under GARCH(1,1), GJR, and Heston-Nandi models. With the date-t GARCH parameters estimated in a moving window fashion from 3,500 daily returns of the S&P 500 index, a hypothetical date-t VIX turns out to be below the...
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