This paper aims to test whether equity returns are predictable over various horizons. We propose a reliable and powerful nonparametric test to examine the predictability of equity returns, which can be interpreted as a signal-to-noise ratio test. Our comprehensive in-sample and out-of-sample...

In this paper, we extend Bossaerts' (2004) analysis of the implications of the efficient learning market hypothesis (ELM) for asset prices by reformulating it in a GMM setting. Our representation is more amenable to widespread application and allows the econometrician, in testing ELM, to make...

We present a framework for modeling and estimating dynamics of variance and skewness from time-series data using a maximum likelihood approach assuming that the errors from the mean have a non-central conditional t distribution. We parameterize conditional variance and conditional skewness in an...

The positive stock price reaction to stock buyback announcements reported in many previous studies is commonly interpreted as a signal that the firm's future profitability will rise, or that the firm is decreasing its agency costs by dispersing free cash flow, or that the firm is increasing its...

We examine a sample of 8,313 cases, between 1951 and 2001, where firms unexpectedly increase their research and development expenditures (Ramp;D) by a significant amount. We find consistent evidence of a mis-reaction, as manifested in the significantly positive abnormal stock returns that our...