In this paper we analyze the link between stock market performance and macroeconomic performance for a large number of countries. We study the short-run and long-run relationships and find that stock market returns do not coherently predict future macroeconomic changes for the majority of...

The correlation between equity returns and currency returns affects the risk of international equity portfolios. We analyze the equity index and currency returns of 53 countries and find that correlations are mainly positive. Negative correlations are found for currencies which play a special...

The aim of this study is to provide a comprehensive description of the dependence pattern of stock returns by studying a range of quantiles of the conditional return distribution using quantile autoregression. This enables us in particular to study the behavior of extreme quantiles associated...

We estimate quantile autoregression (QAR) models to analyze variations in the autoregressive coefficients of 55 international stock index returns and demonstrate that it is important to allow the autoregressive parameters to vary with quantiles. The empirical results identify distinctively...

There is a well documented asymmetric return - volatility effect of equity returns, that is, negative shocks increase volatility by more than positive shocks. This paper analyzes the return - volatility relationship of commodity price changes and finds an inverted asymmetric effect with a...

There is a large literature that reports time-specific anomalies in equity markets such as the Monday effect, the January effect and the Halloween effect. This study is the first to report intra-day time-of-day, day-of-week, and month-of-year effects for Bitcoin returns and trading volume. Using...

We propose to estimate the variance of a time series of financial returns through a quantile autoregressive model (QAR) and demonstrate that the return QAR model contains all information that is commonly captured in two separate equations for the mean and variance of a GARCH-type model. In...