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We perform a large simulation study to examine the extent to which various generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models capture extreme events in stock market returns. We estimate Hill's tail indexes for individual S&P 500 stock market returns ranging from 1995-2014...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010529886
frequency can be obtained almost as precisely as if volatility is observable by simply incorporating the strong information … content of realized volatility measures extracted from high-frequency data. For this purpose, we introduce asymptotically … exact volatility measurement equations in state space form and propose a Bayesian estimation approach. Our highly efficient …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128339
leverage effect and the volatility feedback effect. We stress the importance of distinguishing between realized volatility and … implied volatility, and find that implied volatilities are essential for assessing the volatility feedback effect. The … leverage hypothesis asserts that return shocks lead to changes in conditional volatility, while the volatility feedback effect …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128856
This paper presents a new stochastic volatility model which allows for persistent shifts in volatility of stock market … investigate economic (or market) sources of volatility shifts, without relying on exogenous information from the sample. In … effects of large return shocks on future levels of market volatility. The above properties of the model are shown based on a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013107993
Recent contributions highlight the importance of intraday jumps in forecasting realized volatility at horizons up to … importance of considering the continuous/jump decomposition of volatility for the purpose of density forecasting. Specifically …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012902447
This paper examines the hypothesis that both stock returns and volatility are asymmetric functions of past information …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013004440
is more certain seasonality on expected returns or in volatility. The conclusion is that we reject all calendar effects … higher seasonality in volatility rather on expected returns, concerning the day of the week and the month of the year effects …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013052188
literature, due to some important applications in finance, for example, estimating the integrated volatility and integrated …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013053805
Portfolio managers and investors alike continuously grapple with trying to outperform the benchmarks, while keeping in mind the right number of stocks in the portfolio for optimal diversification. Through our analysis of the Indian stock market, we show that by random selection of stocks, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013313181
volatility estimation is considered. The empirical analysis is performed on futures contracts of both the Standard and Poors 500 … importance of taking asymmetric effects (leverage effects) into account in volatility forecasts when it comes to risk management …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012292347