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Learning from the past : the role of personal experiences in artificial stock markets

Lenhard, Gregor - 2024

Recent survey evidence suggests that investors form beliefs about future stock returns by predominantly extrapolating their own experience: They overweight returns they have personally experienced while underweighting returns from earlier years and consequently expect high (low) stock market...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014490050

Technological synergies, heterogeneous firms, and idiosyncratic volatility

Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Yu, Yang; Zanetti, Francesco - 2024

This paper shows the importance of technological synergies among heterogeneous firms for aggregate fluctuations. First, we document six novel empirical facts using microdata that suggest the existence of important technological synergies between trading firms, the presence of positive...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014496498

Diverging roads: theory-based vs. machine learning-implied stock risk premia

Grammig, Joachim; Hanenberg, Constantin; Schlag, Christian - 2020

We assess financial theory-based and machine learning-implied measurements of stock risk premia by comparing the … preferable to rely on a theory-based approach instead of engaging in the computerintensive hyper-parameter tuning of statistical … models. The theory-based approach also delivers a solid performance at the one year horizon, at which only one machine …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012163064

High-Frequency Expectations from Asset Prices : A Machine Learning Approach

Chaudhry, Aditya - 2020

We propose a novel reinforcement learning approach to extract high-frequency aggregate growth expectations from asset prices. While much expectations-based research in macroeconomics and finance relies on low-frequency surveys, the multitude of events that pass between survey dates renders...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012823023

The influence of heterogeneous preferences on asset prices in an incomplete market model

Niehaus, Frank - 2001

In this paper, we examine an exchange economy with a financial market composed of three assets: a share of a stock, an European call option written on the stock, and a riskless bond. The financial market is assumed to be incomplete and the option is not a redundant asset. In such a case the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011526229

Seven pitfalls of technical analysis

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Plastun, Alex - 2023

This paper examines the main drawbacks of technical analysis. Although this is widely used by practitioners, from an academic perspective it can only be seen as a form of "voodoo finance". In particular, it runs into the following pitfalls: Subjectivity; Doubtful assumptions; Unjustified...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013489574

Entropy, the Information Processing Cycle, and the Forecasting of Bull and Bear Market Peaks and Troughs

Parker, Edgar - 2018

limitations and errors. On the other hand, traditional financial theory has ignored limits that physics would impose on human …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012932832

Asset Pricing In a World of Imperfect Foresight

Bossaerts, Peter - 2020

We consider a canonical asset pricing model, where agents with quadratic preferences are allowed to retrade a limited set of securities over multiple periods, after which these securities expire, and agents consume their liquidation values. A key assumption in this model is that agents have...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833019

The financial origins of non-fundamental risk

Acharya, Sushant; Dogra, Keshav; Singh, Sanjay R. - 2022 - Last updated: January 14, 2022

We formalize the idea that the financial sector can be a source of non-fundamental risk. Households' desire to hedge against price volatility can generate price volatility in equilibrium, even absent fundamental risk. Fearing that asset prices may fall, risk-averse households demand safe assets...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012798791

The intended and unintended consequences of financial-market regulations : a general equilibrium analysis

Buss, Adrian; Dumas, Bernard; Uppal, Raman; Vilkov, Grigory - 2016

In a production economy with trade in financial markets motivated by the desire to share labor-income risk and to speculate, we show that speculation increases volatility of asset returns and investment growth, increases the equity risk premium, and reduces welfare. Regulatory measures, such as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011436064

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