This paper investigates the link between fiscal policy shocks and movements in asset markets using a Fully Simultaneous System approach in a Bayesian framework. Building on the works of Blanchard and Perotti (2002), Leeper and Zha (2003), and Sims and Zha (1999, 2006), the empirical evidence for...

The aim of this study is to examine whether securitized real estate returns reflect direct real estate returns or general stock market returns using international data for the U.S., U.K., and Australia. In contrast to previous research, which has generally relied on overall real estate market...

In this paper we analyze transitions in the stock markets of the US, the UK, and Germany. For all this markets we find that while the markets were focused on stocks from the IT and technology sector around the year 2000, this focus has vanished and the markets have mostly moved towards a focus...

We analyse how the future real economic activity is discounted to the current value of stocks in the US and European markets, and find that the extraordinary threat on future real GDP growth caused by the COVID-19 pandemic was obviously one of the main factors that affected the deep dive in the...

We propose a new predictor - the innovation in the daily return minimum in the U.S. stock market () - for predicting international stock market returns. Using monthly data for a wide range of 17 MSCI international stock markets during the period spanning over half a century from January 1972 to...

An examination of the Shiller cyclically adjusted pricing-earnings (CAPE) ratio reveals its forecasting power for 12-month CRSP equally weighted (EW) excess returns and value weighted (VW) excess returns. The 12-month EW excess returns following low CAPE ratios are, on average, 20.7% higher than...

We empirically study the trading activity in the electronic on-book segment and in the dealership off-book segment of the London Stock Exchange, investigating separately the trading of active market members and of other market participants which are non-members. We find that (i) the volume...

Using unique transactions data for individual high-frequency trading (HFT) firms in the UK equity market, we examine if the trading activity of individual HFT firms is contemporaneously and dynamically correlated with each other, and what impact this has on price efficiency. We find that HFT...

In questioning Kamstra, Kramer, and Levi's (2003) finding of an economically and statistically significant seasonal affective disorder (SAD) effect, Kelly and Meschke (2010) make errors of commission and omission. They misrepresent their empirical results, claiming that the SAD effect arises due...

PurposeThe main objective of this study is to obtain new empirical evidence about the connections between equity trading activity and five possible liquidity determinants: market capitalisation, dividend yield, earnings yield, company growth, and the distinction between recently-listed firms as...