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Monitoring multicountry macroeconomic risk
Korobilis, Dimitris; Schröder, Maximilian - 2023
We propose a multicountry quantile factor augmeneted vector autoregression (QFAVAR) to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence of quantile factors allows for summarizing these two heterogeneities in a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014314068
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A small New Keynesian model to analyze business cycle dynamics in Poland and Romania
Nalban, Valeriu - In: Contemporary economics 9 (2015) 3, pp. 319-336
observed variables. Shock decompositions of the output and the inflation rate revealed the driving forces of the business …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011392289
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Forecasting with Approximate Dynamic Factor Models : The Role of Non-Pervasive Shocks
Luciani, Matteo - 2011
In this paper we investigate whether accounting for non-pervasive shocks improves the forecast of a factor model. We compare four models on a large panel of US quarterly data: factor models, factor models estimated on selected variables, Bayesian shrinkage, and factor models together with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120664
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The effects of structural shocks on macroeconomic fundamentals under aggressive monetary policy : the case of Turkey
Güngör, Mahmut Sami; Güloğlu, Bülent - In: International journal of business and economic sciences … 12 (2019) 2, pp. 7-21
prior distribution of structural parameters and shock processes are determined according to the literature. Then, we … consistent with theoretical framework of the new Keynesian synthesis. Besides, the historical shock decompositions of endogenous … monetary policy increases the effects of monetary policy shock on inflation while its impact on output gap and interest rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012239944
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Dynamic effects of monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic volatility
Mumtaz, Haroon; Theodoridis, Konstantinos - 2015
Epstein-Zin preferences to study the volatility implications of a monetary policy shock. An unexpected increases in the policy … volatility effects of the shock are driven by agents' concern about the (in)ability of the monetary authority to reverse …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011389786
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Dynamic effects of monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic volatility
Mumtaz, Haroon; Theodoridis, Konstantinos - 2018
We develop a VAR that allows the estimation of the impact of monetary policy shocks on volatility. Estimates for the US suggest that an increase in the policy rate by 1% is associated with a rise in unemployment and inflation volatility of about 15%. Using a New Keynesian model, with search and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011928806
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Macroeconomic fluctuations without indeterminacy
Brault, Joshua; Khan, Hashmat; Phaneuf, Louis; Victor, … - 2021
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012596239
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Monetary policy in a small open economy model : a DSGE-VAR approach for Switzerland
Bäurle, Gregor; Menz, Tobias - 2008
We study the transmission of monetary shocks and monetary policy with a behavioral model, corrected for potential misspecification using the DSGE-VAR framework elaborated by DelNegro and Schorfheide (2004). In particular, we investigate if the central bank should react to movements in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003882303
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Forecasting with approximate dynamic factor models : the role of non-pervasive shocks
Luciani, Matteo - In: International journal of forecasting 30 (2013) 1, pp. 20-29
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010243647
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Inference of Impulse Responses Via Bayesian Graphical Structural VAR Models
Ahelegbey, Daniel Felix - 2023
This paper advances the application of Bayesian graphical structural vector autoregressive (BGSVAR) models to address the problem of impulse response estimation in VAR-based systems. The BGSVAR is designed as a robust empirical framework for impulse response estimation using information from the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014354565