We examine the role of U.S. monetary policy in global financial stability by using a cross-country database spanning the period from 1870-2010 across 69 countries. U.S. monetary policy tightening increases the probability of banking crises for those countries with direct linkages to the U.S.,...

This paper studies the long-run evolution of bank risk and its links to the macroeconomy. Using data for 17 advanced economies, we show that the riskiness of bank assets declined materially between 1870 and 2016. But even though bank assets have become safer, the losses on these assets are...

We investigate two competing explanations for commercial bank distress during financial crises: liquidity shortages and solvency concerns. If liquidity shortages cause distress, a lender of last resort can help by providing funds to banks having trouble rolling over short-term debt and facing...

We investigate how changes in industries’ funding costs affect total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Panel regressions with 31 U.S. and Canadian industries between 1991 and 2007, using industries’ dependence on external funding as an identification mechanism, show that higher funding costs...

The goal of this paper is to show that household-level financial distress (FD) varies greatly, meaning there is unequal exposure to macroeconomic risk, and that FD can increase macroeconomic vulnerability. To do this, we first establish three facts: (i) regions in the U.S. vary significantly in...

This paper measures the probability of rare disasters by measuring the probability of the intermeeting federal funds rate cuts they provoke. Differentiating between months with Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings and months without identifies excess returns on federal funds futures...

Understanding the transmission channels of shocks is critical for successful policy response. This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model to assess the relative importance of the interest rate, the exchange rate and the credit channels in transmitting shocks in an open economy. The...

Theory suggests that endogenous borrowing constraints amplify the impact of external shocks on the economy. How big is the amplification? In this paper, we quantitatively investigate this question in the context of a dynamic, general equilibrium model with borrowing constraints under two...

This paper studies financial market disturbances as sources of investment fluctuations in Finland during 1995–2008. We construct a DSGE model of the Finnish economy that incorporates two domestic financial market shocks and financial frictions in the form of a BGG financial accelerator. We...

We explore the implications of shocks to expected future productivity. In a setting with limited enforcement of financial contracts, firms have to post collateral to obtain external finance. In a real one-sector model with this type of "collateral constraint", positive news about future...