In this study, we use the co-movements approach to examine the role of permanent (common trend) and temporary (common cycle) shocks on per capita output, per capita consumption, and per capita investment in Peru, a small open commodity-based economy. Using quarterly data from 1993: Q1 to 2019:...

This paper shows that the explanation of the decline in the volatility of GDP growth since the mid-eighties is not the decline in the volatility of exogenous shocks but rather a change in their propagation mechanism

What drives macroeconomic tail risk? To answer this question, we borrow a definition of macroeconomic risk from Adrian et al. (2019) by studying (left-tail) percentiles of the forecast distribution of GDP growth. We use local projections (Jordà , 2005) to assess how this measure of risk moves...

Real GDP and industrial production in the US feature substantial tail risk. While this fact is well documented, several questions remain unanswered. Is this asymmetry driven by a specific structural shock? No. We show that the 10th percentile of the predictive growth distributions responds about...

VARs are a popular tool for forecasting and structural analysis, but ill-suited to handle occasionally binding constraints, like the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates. We extend the VAR framework by modeling interest rates as censored observations of a latent shadow-rate process,...

This paper presents a model of asymmetric (S,s) pricing. We investigate whether the asymmetry on micro level is carried over on macro level and what is the role of agent heterogeneity in the process. We look at two kinds of asymmetries: (i) asymmetric output responses monetary shocks and (ii)...

In this paper, we analyse nominal exchange rate and price dynamics after risk shocks with short-term interest rates constrained by the zero lower bound (ZLB). We show with a stylized theoretical model that temporary risk shocks may lead to permanent shifts of the exchange rate and the price...

The aim of this paper is to rely on a wide variety of forecasts and survey based estimates of inflationary expectations since the early 1990s for a group of 9 economies, 5 of which explicitly target inflation, and ask: To what extent are disagreements over forecasts of inflation driven by...

Since the 2000s, large fluctuations in commodity prices have become a concern among policymakers regarding price stability. This paper investigates the effects of commodity price shocks on headline inflation with a monthly panel consisting of 144 countries. We find that the effects of commodity...

We show that exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices varies not only across countries, but also over time. Previous literature has highlighted the role of an economy's ‘structure' — such as its inflation volatility, inflation rate, use of foreign currency invoicing, and openness — in...