By matching a large database of individual forecaster data with the universe of sizable natural disasters across 54 countries, we identify a set of new stylized facts: (i) forecasters are persistently heterogeneous in how often they issue or revise a forecast; (ii) information rigidity declines...

A growing body of evidence suggests that uncertainty is counter cyclical, rising sharply in recessions and falling in booms. But what is the causal relationship between uncertainty and growth? To identify this we construct cross country panel data on stock market levels and volatility as proxies...

A growing body of evidence suggests that uncertainty is counter cyclical, rising sharply in recessions and falling in booms. But what is the causal relationship between uncertainty and growth? To identify this we construct cross country panel data on stock market levels and volatility as proxies...

This paper exploits a detailed new dataset with comprehensive panel financial information on millions of American households to investigate the interaction between household balance sheets, income, and consumption during the Great Recession. In particular, I test whether consumption among...