We document that even though the normal distribution is a good approximation to the nature of aggregate fluctuations, it severely underpredicts the frequency of large economic downturns. We then provide a model that can explain these facts simultaneously. Our model shows that the propagation of...

We document that even though the normal distribution provides a good approximation to GDP fluctuations, it severely underpredicts "macroeconomic tail risks," that is, the frequency of large economic downturns. Using a multi-sector general equilibrium model, we show that the interplay of...

We document that even though the normal distribution provides a good approximation to GDP fluctuations, it severely underpredicts “macroeconomic tail risks,” that is, the frequency of large economic downturns. Using a multi-sector general equilibrium model, we show that the interplay of...

We document that even though the normal distribution provides a good approximation to GDP fluctuations, it severely underpredicts "macroeconomic tail risks," that is, the frequency of large economic downturns. Using a multi-sector general equilibrium model, we show that the interplay of...