We analyze the interaction between monetary policy in the US and the global economy, using a global vector autoregressive model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility (TVP-SV-GVAR). We find that a contractionary US monetary policy shock leads to a persistent fall in international...

We propose an approach for Bayesian inference in time-varying structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) identified with sign restrictions. The linchpin of our approach is a class of rotation-invariant time-varying SVARs in which the prior and posterior densities of any sequence of structural...

Ways of extracting financial condition indices (FCI) are explored and alternative FCIs external to the Chinese economy are constructed to model their predictive content. The exploration aims at highlighting the rich and varied dynamic features of financial variables underlying FCIs and the...

We stress test the global economy to extreme climate change-related shocks on large and interconnected economies. Our analysis (i) identifies large and interconnected economies vulnerable to climate change-related shocks; (ii) estimates these economies’ external financing needs-at-risk due to...

In this study, we examine stock market shocks using a Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model encompassing 26 countries from January 1999 to June 2022. Our findings reveal that i) shocks originating from advanced economies (AD) exhibit greater persistence in generating fluctuations compared to...

This paper examines the medium and long-term impacts of economic news on exchange rate movements. We extend a standard new open economy macroeconomics model by allowing anticipated (news) shocks in purchasing power parity and real interest rates, and perform a structural Bayesian estimation....

The literature on uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) shows two empirical puzzles. One is the failure of UIP, and the other is the unstable coefficients in the UIP regression. We propose a time-varying coefficients model with stochastic volatility and US structural shocks (TVC-SVX) to study how...

Fama’s (1984) volatility relations show that the risk premium in foreign exchange markets is more volatile than, and is negatively correlated with the expected rate of depreciation. This paper studies these relations from the perspective of goods markets frictions. Using a sticky-price general...

Recent research highlights rapidly rising international reserves relative to GDP in many emerging market economies since the 1990s. According to many observers, these countries opted for new policy in the aftermath of crises consisting at accumulating international re-serves to insure themselves...

The war in Ukraine and new sanctions imposed on Russia have affected commodity prices and induced historic moves in exchange rate markets. In this paper, we examine the impact of commodity price shocks related to the war in Ukraine on three currencies (Canadian dollar, euro, and Japanese yen)....