We use macro finance models to study the interaction between macro variables and the Brazilian sovereign yield curve using daily data. We calculate the model implied default probabilities and a measure of the impact of macro shocks on the probabilities. An extension of the Dai-Singleton...

This paper analyzes the integration of the American, European, and Asian natural gas markets over the period 2016-2022, with a focus on how the demand shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the supply shock caused by geopolitical tensions in the European market affected this integration. We...

Movements in prices depend both on innovations to cashflows and changes in discount rates, which can be modelled as fluctuations in the cross-sectional distribution of wealth across an unchanging set of investment objectives. This paper explores the risk that arises when investors do not have...

Risk-averse expected utility maximization implies that the pricing kernel must be a non-increasing function of aggregate wealth. However, empirical research has found that the pricing kernel frequently displays a locally increasing portion in aggregate wealth. This is known as the pricing kernel...

Literature studying comovement in commodity prices provides mixed evidence for whether commodity markets are segmented or driven by common factors. We provide a joint framework to study comovement across 24 of the most traded commodities over 20 years. The framework benefits from using the whole...

We test one of the main predictions of the financial flexibility paradigm, that expectations about future firm-specific investment shocks affect the firm's leverage. We extract the expectations of small and large future shocks from the market prices of equity options. We find that leverage...

This paper studies the behaviour of shipping investors following an unexpected shock in the freight rates, while accounting for costs (fuel), and the macro environment (stock prices and trade). The estimates firstly confirm the existence of a long-term relationship between the macroeconomic...

When stock prices deviate from their fundamental values due to excess demand, investors anticipate reversals and trade in the options market to exploit the temporary misvaluation. This leads to options’ predictability of stock returns beyond the well-known informed trading channel. Using S&P...

This paper examines the impact of anticipated and unanticipated interest rate changes on aggregate and sectoral stock returns in the United Kingdom. The monetary policy shock is generated from the change in the 3-month sterling LIBOR futures contract. Results from time-series and panel analysis...

We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with financial frictions on both financial intermediaries and goods-producing firms. In this context, due to high leverage of financial intermediaries, balance sheet disruptions in the financial sector are particularly detrimental for...