We use macro finance models to study the interaction between macro variables and the Brazilian sovereign yield curve using daily data. We calculate the model implied default probabilities and a measure of the impact of macro shocks on the probabilities. An extension of the Dai-Singleton...

Using futures data for the period 1990 - 2008, this paper finds evidence that expansionary monetary policy surprises tend to increase crude and heating oil prices, and contractionary monetary policy shocks increase gold and platinum prices. Our analysis uncovers substantial heterogeneity in the...

We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with financial frictions on both financial intermediaries and goods-producing firms. In this context, due to high leverage of financial intermediaries, balance sheet disruptions in the financial sector are particularly detrimental for...

This paper takes an innovative look at the relationship between the pricing of commodity futures contracts and its relation to storage and speculation. Fifteen commodities are analyzed over the time period from 1990 to 2010. Contrary to other studies, we analyze temporary and permanent futures...

The effect of four distinct market events on investor risk aversion is evaluated using options data on the WTI crude oil futures contract during the 2007-2011 period. The risk aversion function and the stochastic discount factor (SDF) are estimated using parametric approaches before and after...

The basis between swaps referencing funded fixings and swaps referencing overnight-collateralized fixings (e.g. 6 month Euribor vs 6 month Eonia) has increased in importance with the 2007-9 liquidity and credit crises. This basis means that new pricing models for fixed income staples like caps,...

Movements in prices depend both on innovations to cashflows and changes in discount rates, which can be modelled as fluctuations in the cross-sectional distribution of wealth across an unchanging set of investment objectives. This paper explores the risk that arises when investors do not have...

We explore whether and how liquidity factors influence risk transfers between commodity and stock markets using a composite liquidity index and five different types of liquidity measures. We find that liquidity shocks, including both funding liquidity and market liquidity, are positively...

Our paper presents a crude oil price model in which the price is confined in a wide moving band. A price crash occurs when the price breaches the lower boundary where a smooth-pasting condition is imposed. Using an asymmetric mean-reverting fundamental (supply/demand) shock, the solution derived...

We obtain explicit expressions for the subjective, objective and market value of perpetual executive stock options (ESOs) under exogenous employment shocks driven by an independent Poisson process. Previously, we obtain the executive's optimal exercise policy from the subjective valuation that...