The baseline scenario suggests that the dynamics of external and public debt would remain sustainable. External debt, which includes both private external debt and public external debt, is expected to decline from 83.8% of GDP in 2018 to 76.5% of GDP in 2024. The total public debt (includes...

Estimated DSGE models have become the standard workhorse model for empirically based macroeconomic analysis in recent years. In this paper, we present an estimated DSGE model for Denmark. The model has been estimated using Bayesian methods and a dataset consisting of 23 macroeconomic variables....

The primary objective of this paper is to revisit DSGE models with a view to bringing out their key weaknesses, including statistical misspecification, non-identification of deep parameters, substantive inadequacy, weak forecasting performance, and potentially misleading policy analysis. It is...

This paper examines macroeconomic effects and transmission mechanisms of COVID19 in Mongolia, a developing and commodity-exporting economy, by estimating a Bayesian structural vector autoregression on quarterly data. We find strong cross-border spillover effects of COVID-19. Our estimates...

The lingering memory of the 1997 Asian Financial crisis coupled with the successful establishment of the European Union in 1999 with the common currency namely the Euro has triggered a great deal of research interest on the optimality of ASEAN as a Common Currency Area. A meta-Analysis of...

This paper presents the theoretical foundations and dynamic properties of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model designed for quantitative policy analysis and counterfactual exercises. The approach of the paper can be summarized as follows. First, we present the model’s...

Should shocks be part of our macro-modeling tool kit - for example, as a way of modeling discontinuities in fiscal policy or big moves in the financial markets? What are shocks, and how can we best put them to use? In heterodox macroeconomics, shocks tend to come in two broad types, with some...

Should shocks be part of our macro-modeling tool kit — for example, as a way of modeling discontinuities in fiscal policy or big moves in the financial markets? What are shocks, and how can we best put them to use? In heterodox macroeconomics, shocks tend to come in two broad types, with some...

We implement a two-step approach to construct a financing conditions index (FCI) for the euro area and its four larger member states (Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The method, which follows Hatzius et al. (2010), is based on factor analysis and enables to summarise information on financing...

The article proposes a methodology for using macro-level stress testing based on the results of business tendency surveys to study possible scenarios for the development of crisis dynamics triggered by external unforeseen supply and demand shocks, as in the case of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well...