The global expansion weakened somewhat in the third quarter while the downside risks have increased. DIW Berlin’s forecast- almost unchanged-indicates an expansion in global economic production of 4.3 percent for 2018 and 3.9 percent for 2019. In 2020, momentum will slow down further to 3.6...

This paper examines macroeconomic effects and transmission mechanisms of COVID19 in Mongolia, a developing and commodity-exporting economy, by estimating a Bayesian structural vector autoregression on quarterly data. We find strong cross-border spillover effects of COVID-19. Our estimates...

By matching a large database of individual forecaster data with the universe of sizable natural disasters across 54 countries, we identify a set of new stylized facts: (i) forecasters are persistently heterogeneous in how often they issue or revise a forecast; (ii) information rigidity declines...

We propose a multicountry quantile factor augmeneted vector autoregression (QFAVAR) to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence of quantile factors allows for summarizing these two heterogeneities in a...

We propose a multicountry quantile factor augmeneted vector autoregression (QFAVAR) to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence of quantile factors allows for summarizing these two heterogeneities in a...

Should shocks be part of our macro-modeling tool kit - for example, as a way of modeling discontinuities in fiscal policy or big moves in the financial markets? What are shocks, and how can we best put them to use? In heterodox macroeconomics, shocks tend to come in two broad types, with some...

The ongoing corona pandemic is causing a major shock to the global economy. In the coming months, many countries are expected to suffer severe economic downturns. Sealing off entire regions disrupts supply chains, resulting in production losses and falls in consumption. The global economy is...

"During the 1990s Francis Fukuyama announced the end of history. The 2000s showed how it is an illusion to imagine a peaceful world without conflict.In this book the authors explore how six major constraints are set to fix the trajectory of the global economy. Three of them are new: the aging...

During the 1990s Francis Fukuyama announced the end of history. The 2000s showed how it is an illusion to imagine a peaceful world without conflict. In this book, the authors explore how six major constraints are set to fix the trajectory of the global economy. Three of them are new: the aging...