We investigate the effects of fiscal policy surprises for US data, using vector autoregressions. We overcome the difficulties that changes in fiscal policy may manifest themselves in variables other than fiscal variables first and that fiscal variables may respond "automatically" to business...

We investigate the effects of UK monetary policy from 1974-2001 using a structural vector autoregression with quarterly data. We adapt Uhlig's (2001) sign restriction identification methodology and show that shocks which can reasonably be described as monetary policy shocks have played a very...

We propose and apply a new approach for analyzing the effects of fiscal policy using vector autoregressions. Unlike most of the previous literature this approach does not require that the contemporaneous reaction of some variables to fiscal policy shocks be set to zero or need additional...

The empirical literature using vector autoregressive models to assess the effects of fiscal policy shocks strongly disagrees on even the qualitative response of key macroeconomic variables to government spending and tax shocks. We provide new evidence for the U.S. over the period 1955-2006. We...

The impact of fiscal policy on economic growth is investigated within a panel of euro area member states over the period 2004-2011. We mainly consider fiscal impulses identified by (a) changes in the structural primary balance, complemented by evidence from (b) the IMF narrative shocks developed...

Economic disruptions generally create winners and losers. The compensation problem consists of designing a reform of the existing income tax system that offsets the welfare losses of the latter by redistributing the gains of the former. We derive a formula for the compensating tax reform and its...

The LeChatelier-Samuelson principle ("the principle") states that as a reaction to a shock, an agent's short-run adjustment of an action is smaller than the long-run adjustment of that action when the other related actions can also be adjusted. We extend the principle to strategic environments...

Many job-losers suffer large and persistent losses in earnings capacity. For displaced workers who are age-eligible, one reaction to these losses is to begin claiming Social Security retirement benefits. We use administrative earnings records from the Social Security Administration's Continuous...

This paper analyses the impact of the three oil price shocks, the oil supply shocks, the aggregate demand shocks, the oil-specific demand shock Kilian (2009) and the residual shocks on the fuel prices of the small, oil importing economy of Sri Lanka. Findings suggest that, domestic petrol prices...

Fiscal stimulus was widely advocated during the global crisis, a period characterized by monetary policy constrained by the effective lower bound (ELB) in many countries, in part because of expected positive spillovers. Standard New Keynesian models predict the cross-border transmission of...