Stochastic models with economy-wide shocks imply that the welfare costs of aggregate volatility are negligible. In reality, idiosyncratic shocks are important, and empirical evidence suggests that their volatility is several times that of aggregate shocks. This paper introduces both types of...

This paper demonstrates that if current shocks are observed instantaneously, output can be stabilized perfectly for completely general supply disturbances, using simple monetary rules based only on: (i) the current shock, (ii) the previous forecast of the current shock, (iii) the forecast for...

This paper investigates the impact of change in the terms of trade on the economic performance of a small economy. Both the effects of unanticipated shocks and changes in the mean and variance of the probability distribution generating these disturbances are discussed. In all cases, the key...

This paper analyzes strategic monetary policies using a standard two country stochastic macro model. Three noncooperative equilibria, namely Cournot, Stackelberg, and Consistent Conjectural Variations, are considered.The Pareto Optimal equilibrium, where aggregate joint costs are minimizedis...