The coronavirus crisis that started in December 2019 was declared a pandemic by March 2020 and had devastating global … effective vaccines. While many governments implemented lockdowns to counter the pandemic, others did not let the virus halt … economic activity. In this paper, we use a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive framework to study the effects of the pandemic on …

Lockdowns imposed to fight the Covid-19 pandemic have cross-border effects. In this paper, we estimate the empirical … first wave of the pandemic. Countries with a higher export share are particularly exposed to lockdown spillovers. …

Tillmann (University of Giessen).Lockdowns imposed to fight the Covid-19 pandemic have cross-border effects. In this paper, we … been particularly strong during the first wave of the pandemic. Countries with a higher export share are particularly …

Tillmann (University of Giessen).Lockdowns imposed to fight the Covid-19 pandemic have cross-border effects. In this paper, we … been particularly strong during the first wave of the pandemic. Countries with a higher export share are particularly …

shock come with news about its propagation, allowing us to disentangle the role of beliefs about the future of the pandemic … persistent, although the successive pandemic waves (e.g., the Delta wave) have a progressively smaller impact on the macroeconomy …. Our methods provide a foundation to estimate structural models with data that include the pandemic without having to …

of 2020. These cuts stem from firms that have been disproportionally negatively affected by the pandemic. Second, firms … (like professional forecasters) have responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by lowering their one-year-ahead inflation …) following the onset of the pandemic, while household measures of inflation expectations jumped markedly. Third, despite the …