In the light of finite oil reserves, Persian Gulf oil-exporting economies have recently undertaken major investments in their domestic travel and tourism industries. Building on the Bayesian SVAR model of the global oil market in Baumeister and Hamilton (2019), we investigate the conditional...

This paper looks at the interrelationship between external shocks and integration processes in the relationship between two relatively small states (Belarus and Ukraine) and their much larger neighbor (Russia). It contrasts Russia’s willingness and ability to use energy as a soft-power...

The process of electricity production, distribution, and consumption represents a complex system with many heterogeneous characteristics. Physical constraints of the electricity, especially the difficulties with its storage, pose specific challenges on the structure of the power network and the...

We construct unanticipated government spending shocks for 103 developing countries from 1990 to 2015 and study their effects on income distribution. We find that unanticipated fiscal consolidations lead to a long-lasting increase in income inequality, while fiscal expansions lower inequality....

We revisit the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation of the non-Gaussian structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. It is shown that in the n-dimensional SVAR model, global and local identification of the contemporaneous impact matrix is achieved with as few as n^2+n(n-1)/2 suitably...

We propose a structural vector-autoregressive model for the German natural gas market to investigate the impact of the 2022 Russian supply stop on the German economy. We combine conventional and narrative sign restrictions to leverage information about supply cuts for identification and find...

We use a structural VAR model to study the German natural gas market and investigate the impact of the 2022 Russian supply stop on the German economy. Combining conventional and narrative sign restrictions, we find that gas supply and demand shocks have large and persistent price effects, while...

We use a structural VAR model to study the German natural gas market and investigate the impact of the 2022 Russian supply stop on the German economy. Combining conventional and narrative sign restrictions, we find that gas supply and demand shocks have large and persistent price effects, while...

The EU implemented the Market Stability Reserve (MSR) in response to the 2008 financial crisis to deal with short-term impacts of future shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. We link a model that intertemporally optimizes the handling of banked allowances every five years with one that...

We use survey evidence on reported spending in hypothetical energy price shock scenarios to study novel features of the price elasticity of energy demand and the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) after paying the energy bill. We find that the price elasticity is significantly larger for price...