The nonlinear effects of uncertainty shocks on U.S. macroeconomic activity are examined using a smooth transition VAR model in which the dynamic relationship between the variables changes with the level of economic policy uncertainty. We find that the responses of the variables change with the...

We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model in which the policy rate signals the central bank's view about macroeconomic developments to price setters. The model is estimated with likelihood methods on a U.S. data set that includes the Survey of Professional Forecasters as a measure of price...

Using 48 country data for the period 1800-2010, we empirically investigate the effect of hyperinflations on the public debt, the primary surplus, and the real economy. Estimating a panel vector-autoregressive (VAR) model, we find that (i) hyperinflations permanently reduce public debt-to-GDP...