Different stochastic simulation methods are used in order to check the robustness of the outcome of policy simulations with a macroeconometric model. A macroeconometric disequilibriummodel of the West German economy is used to analyze a reform proposal for the tax system. The model was estimated...

Zusammenfassung Monte Carlo Methoden haben sich auf vielen Gebieten der Statistik und Ökonometrie als wertvolles Instrument erwiesen. Die übliche Verwendung von Pseudozufallszahlen führt dazu, daß der Zusammenhang zwischen einem allgemeinen Zufallsbegriff und der Anwendung in Monte Carlo...

In this paper a macroeconometric disequilibrium model for West Germany is presented and its quality for policy simulations and forecasting are analyzed using stochastic in-sample simulations. The model is built on a dynamic disequilibrium model of firms' behaviour. Due to delayed adjustment of...

This paper attempts to evaluate economic effects of migration into Germany on the basis of a macroeconometric disequilibrium model. Germany has the advantage of having experience with migratory movements of guestworkers. There was a tremendous infiow of those workers in the sixties as well as an...

This paper proposes validation using simulation based indirect estimation. It uses typical characteristic moments of financial market data to assess the similarity of simulation outcomes.

The assessment of models of financial market behavior requires evaluation tools. When complexity hinders a direct estimation approach, e.g., for agent based microsimulation models or complex multifractal models, simulation based estimators might provide an alternative. In order to apply such...

In this paper a macroeconometric disequilibrium model for West Germany is presented and its quality for policy simulations and forecasting are analyzed using stochastic in-sample simulations. The model is built on a dynamic disequilibrium model of firms' behaviour. Due to delayed adjustment of...

Different stochastic simulation methods are used in order to check the robustness of the outcome of policy simulations with a macroeconometric model. A macroeconometric disequilibriummodel of the West German economy is used to analyze a reform proposal for the tax system. The model was estimated...