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The main goal of this paper is to better understand the behavior of credit spreads in the past and the potential risk of unexpected future credit spread changes. One important consideration to note regarding credit spreads is the fact that bond spreads contain a liquidity premium, which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013105185
This paper explores the specification and use of uncertainty measures in constructions of policy forecasts of money market activity. The concept of a policy forecast implies efforts not only to explicitly condition forecasts on assumptions regarding short-run operating procedures but also to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013403665
general enough to apply to impulse responses estimated by VARs, local projections, and simulation methods. We show that our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292348
estimated by VARs, local projections, and simulation methods. We show that the use of our criteria significantly affects …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013070607
This letter reveals using simulation studies that regularization parameter selection via cross-validation (CV) in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013010575
general enough to apply to impulse responses estimated by VARs, local projections, and simulation methods. We show that our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012709425
stock return and price forecasts. The results show that the simulation by a VECX econometric model is robust as seen by the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013129177
In this paper we explore the use of Genetic Algorithms (GA) to calibrate seasonal BVAR models. In this way, the mechanistic use of seasonal adjustment procedures is avoided, since seasonality becomes a structural, basic and explicit part of the BVAR model. At the same time, the use of GA allows...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014132203
The stochastic simulation model suggested by Bolder (2003) for the analysis of the federal government's debt … nonetheless complicated by two challenges. First, performing optimization with traditional techniques in a simulation setting is … address a number of policy questions that could not be fully addressed with the current stochastic simulation engine. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010279867
The stochastic simulation model suggested by Bolder (2003) for the analysis of the federal government's debt … nonetheless complicated by two challenges. First, performing optimization with traditional techniques in a simulation setting is … address a number of policy questions that could not be fully addressed with the current stochastic simulation engine. -- Debt …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003463632