We consider the problem of using simulation to efficiently estimate the win probabilities for participants in a general random knockout tournament. Both of our proposed estimators, one based on the notion of “observed survivals” and the other based on conditional expectation and...

The Asmussen-Kroese Monte Carlo estimators of P(S_n u) and P(S_N u) are known to work well in rare event settings, where S_N is the sum of independent, identically distributed heavy-tailed random variables X_1,...,X_N and N is a non-negative, integer-valued random variable independent of the...