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Predicting cycles in economic activity is one of the more challenging but important aspects of economic forecasting. This paper reports the results from estimation of binary probit models that predict the probability of an economy being in a recession using a variety of financial and real...
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forecasting inflation in Singapore, Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong paying particular attention to whether the inflation … is best predicted by financial and business activity variables. For Japan, global commodity variables provide the most … as forecasting horizon increases and these gains are found to be significant for Japan and Korea …
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