By how much do employed households reduce their consumption when the aggregate unemployment rate rises? In Spain during the Great Recession a 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate was related to a strong drop in household consumption of more than 0.7% per equivalent adult. This...

This paper investigates the effects of monitoring the information trails generated by firms’ activities in order to improve tax compliance. We use quasi-experimental variation provided by a Large Taxpayers Unit (LTU) in Spain to empirically test the theoretical predictions on firms’...

This paper simulates the future performance of the Spanish pension system using a large OLG model. We compare the system in place after the 2011 pension reform to that emerging after the latest (2013) institutional changes. In particular, we explore the workings of the new indexing mechanism,...

This paper seeks to estimate the potential output of the Spanish economy, using the production function methodology standard in the literature. According to these estimates, the growth of the potential output of the Spanish economy stood at around 3% in the period 2000-2007, owing to the marked...

This paper presents a new version of the Spanish quarterly macroeconometric model. The previous version [see Willman and Estrada (2002)] evidenced a number of shortcomings, some of which are redressed here. In particular, the model now uses seasonally and working days adjusted time series; it...

Opinion-based surveys, or quantitative surveys, are potentially very powerful tools for conjunctural analysis in view of their rapid availability and nature. This paper addresses the usefulness of these surveys for monitoring the Spanish economy. To do this it analyses the two most important...

This paper presents the Spanish country block (ES-MCM) of the ESCB Multi-Country Model for the euro area, which has been built in a close co-operation with the ECB and the Banco de España. The theoretical structure of the ES-MCM block is in line with most current mainstream macro models, i.e....