Using CFTC's COT data, both GARCH and PARCH volatility based models found the lagged volatility and news about volatility from the previous month to be significant in explaining large hedgers' and speculators' volatility. The greater reliance on the ARCH term for speculators' suggested their...

Using the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders data, considering both the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and the power ARCH volatility-based models, it has been found that the lagged volatility and the news about volatility from the...

Using CFTC’s COT data, this letter analysed whether large hedgers and large speculators were influenced by major economic events of the 1990s. Eight major economics events are looked at over 10-year period, and findings support that these informed players were hardly affected by major events....