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The problem of coordination between policymakers seems to have created fundamental problems related to economic and social costs, targeted inflation, potential growth, and a high budget deficit. To resolve these problems in this framework, it is important to see the results of the interaction...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012887985
In this paper the extended model of Minority game (MG), incorporating variable number of agents and therefore called Grand Canonical, is used for prediction. We proved that the best MG-based predictor is constituted by a tremendously degenerated system, when only one agent is involved. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013059395
This paper presents DSGE Nash, a toolkit to solve for pure strategy Nash equilibria of global games in general equilibrium macroeconomic models. Although primarily designed to solve for Nash equilibria in DSGE models, the toolkit encompasses a broad range of options including solutions up to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014076795
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Perfect Bayesian equilibrium is not a subset of Nash equilibrium. Perfect Bayesian equilibrium requires players to have beliefs that are consistent with the equilibrium strategies of other players. Nash equilibrium does not explicitly specify the beliefs of the players. However, the default...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014158965
This paper uses Bayesian equilibrium by iterative conjectures approach to solve a noisy sequential game, that is, a sequential game with inaccurate observation clouded by noise. Bayesian equilibrium by iterative conjectures requires players to form conjectures about the strategies of the other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014163813
This paper studies a new refinement for Perfect Bayesian equilibrium, Bayesian equilibrium by iterative conjectures (BEIC). BEIC requires players to make predictions, starting from first order uninformative predictive distribution functions (or conjectures) and keep updating with statistical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014164319
Over a century ago, Oliver Wendell Holmes invited scholars to look at law through the lens of probability theory: ‘The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013067657
This paper develops a framework for estimating Quantal Response Equilibrium models from experimental data using Bayesian techniques. Bayesian techniques offer some advantages over the more commonly-used maximum likelihood approach: (i) the accuracy of the posterior simulation is limited by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013245678