Erkenntnis einer umfangreichen Retrospektive zur Theorie der Währungskrisen. Mit Hilfe der Computer-Software SPSS 12.0.1 und …

. Empirical research shows evidence that the level of forecast quality is generally rather poor. In order to gain further insight … the concept of forecast rationality evolved. This means that systematic errors like frequent overestimations have to be … avoided. The first part of the dissertation thesis cares about the common understanding of forecast rationality. It is …

We study forecast dispersion in a finite-player forecasting game modeled as an aggregate game with payoff externalities … forecast from the average forecast; and with a finite number of agents, the agents can strategically in influence that average … find that when each agent prefers to be close to the average forecast, the presence of strategic manipulation of the …