We estimate a Bayesian learning model with heterogeneity aimed at explaining expert forecast disagreement and its evolution over horizons. Disagreement is postulated to have three components due to differences in: i) the initial prior beliefs, ii) the weights attached on priors, and iii)...

In a system where expectations and realisations of a price feed back to each other, it has been found that the sign and strength of this feedback is an important predictor of the market stability. In this paper we contribute to the generalisation of this result to a two dimensional system, where...

There are many competing game-theoretic analyses of terrorism. Most of these models suggest nonlinear relationships between terror attacks and some variable of interest. However, to date, there have been very few attempts to empirically sift between competing models of terrorism or identify...