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Evolution of Forecast Disagreement in a Bayesian Learning Model

Lahiri, Kajal - 2007

We estimate a Bayesian learning model with heterogeneity aimed at explaining expert forecast disagreement and its evolution over horizons. Disagreement is postulated to have three components due to differences in: i) the initial prior beliefs, ii) the weights attached on priors, and iii)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012729485

Politische Ökonomie internationaler Währungskrisen : ein dreidimensionales Frühwarnsystem

Angermayer, Björn - 2006 - 1. Aufl.

Erkenntnis einer umfangreichen Retrospektive zur Theorie der Währungskrisen. Mit Hilfe der Computer-Software SPSS 12.0.1 und …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003440555

Optimal Trade Sizing in a Game with Favourable Odds : The Stock Market

Haghani, Victor - 2016

In this short note, we show investors one way to calculate ideal investment sizing by using two rules of thumb based on a simple outline of individual risk aversion. We illustrate these two heuristics, which are not widely appreciated, with thought experiments involving coin flips and ketchup &...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012978604

A Bayesian Model of the Litigation Game

Guerra-Pujol, F. E. - 2014

Over a century ago, Oliver Wendell Holmes invited scholars to look at law through the lens of probability theory: ‘The …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013067657

Bayesian Inference for Quantal Response Equilibrium in Normal-Form Games

Bland, James R. - 2021

This paper develops a framework for estimating Quantal Response Equilibrium models from experimental data using Bayesian techniques. Bayesian techniques offer some advantages over the more commonly-used maximum likelihood approach: (i) the accuracy of the posterior simulation is limited by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013245678

A Bayesian Theory of Games : An Analysis of Strategic Interactions with Statistical Decision Theoretic Foundation

Teng, Jimmy - 2012

set of games than current Nash Equilibrium based games theory, including games with inaccurate observations, games with … games analyzed by the current games theory, it generates far lesser equilibriums and normally generates only a unique … equilibrium. It also resolves inconsistencies in equilibrium results by different solution concepts in current games theory …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014172228

Is Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium a Subset of Nash Equilibrium?

Teng, Jimmy - 2013

Perfect Bayesian equilibrium is not a subset of Nash equilibrium. Perfect Bayesian equilibrium requires players to have beliefs that are consistent with the equilibrium strategies of other players. Nash equilibrium does not explicitly specify the beliefs of the players. However, the default...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014158965

Analyzing Noisy Observation Game with Bayesian Iterative Conjectures Approach

Teng, Jimmy - 2012

This paper uses Bayesian equilibrium by iterative conjectures approach to solve a noisy sequential game, that is, a sequential game with inaccurate observation clouded by noise. Bayesian equilibrium by iterative conjectures requires players to form conjectures about the strategies of the other...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014163813

Refining Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium by Bayesian Iterative Conjectures Algorithm

Teng, Jimmy - 2012

This paper studies a new refinement for Perfect Bayesian equilibrium, Bayesian equilibrium by iterative conjectures (BEIC). BEIC requires players to make predictions, starting from first order uninformative predictive distribution functions (or conjectures) and keep updating with statistical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014164319

The Determinants of Response Time in a Repeated Constant-Sum Game : A Robust Bayesian Hierarchical Dual-Process Model

Spiliopoulos, Leonidas - 2018

theory and tested empirically. Response times were strongly dependent on the actions chosen by both players in the previous …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014128971

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