This paper develops a statistical model for measuring spatial interactions when estimating macroeconomic regimes and regime shifts. The model is applied to study the contagion and propagation of recessions in small regional economies in the United States from 1990 to 2015. The empirical analysis...

Using dynamic factor models and state-space techniques we quantify financial cycles for twenty European countries over the period 1960Q1–2015Q4 capturing imbalances across credit, housing, bond and equity markets. The paper documents the existence of slow-moving and persistent financial cycles...

The seven largest emerging market economies -China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia, and Turkey- constituted more than one-quarter of global output and more than half of global output growth during 2010-15.These emerging markets, which we call EM7,are also closely integrated with other...

This study constructs the macroeconomic uncertainty indices for an emerging economy, India, and considers other macroeconomic uncertainty indices to evaluate their relative effectiveness in terms of tracing the business cycles and finding out the transmission channels consistent with theory. The...