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for the G7 countries we find that: i) spillovers between credit growth and GDP growth evolve rather heterogeneously over … time and across countries, and increase during extreme economic events. ii) Spillovers between credit growth and GDP growth … shorty before and on the onset of the global financial crisis, the link between credit growth and GDP growth becomes more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010253456
Using dynamic factor models and state-space techniques we quantify financial cycles for twenty European countries over the period 1960Q1–2015Q4 capturing imbalances across credit, housing, bond and equity markets. The paper documents the existence of slow-moving and persistent financial cycles...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012153925
. Given their size and integration, growth in EM7 could have significant cross-border spillovers. We provide empirical … estimates of these spillovers using a Bayesian vector auto regression model. We report three main results. First, spillovers …. Second, sizeable as they are, spillovers from EM7 are still smaller than those from G7 countries (Group of Seven of advanced …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011696360
The paper investigates exchange rate cycles and their relationship to the business cycle in 7 major emerging market economies. We document the presence of periodic cycles in nominal US-dollar exchange rates and show that these are closely aligned with cycle frequencies in real output. Joint...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660709
We study the link between the global financial cycle and macroeconomic tail risks using quantile vector autoregressions. Contractionary shocks to financial conditions and monetary policy in the United States cause elevated downside risks to growth around the world. By tightening financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013459721
This paper develops a two-country multi-frictional model where the freeze on liquidity access to commercial banks in one country raises unemployment rates via credit rationing in both countries. The expenditure-switching channel, whereby asymmetric monetary shocks traditionally lead to negative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011346436
This paper develops a two-country model in which transmission of financial shocks arises despite a flexible exchange rate regime and substitutable financial assets, contrary to the open-economy literature results under these two conditions. The search and matching approach first accounts for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012967228
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014251829
This study examines the monetary policy effectiveness of five major Asian countries (China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, and South Korea) using a quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) model-based spillover estimation approach of Balcilar et al. (2020b) at different quantile paths. To do this, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012549189
This paper examines the role of monetary policy (MP) as a driver of connectedness patterns in speculative activities in financial markets. Examining measures of speculation in four major markets including gold, equities, Treasury bonds and crude oil, we show that speculative activities can spill...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836728