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Economic Outlook data over the period 2004 ̶ 2015 in-dicate that an increase in economic growth in China had a negative impact … accelerating economic growth in China. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012167281
As an important global and regional economic power, the PRC's growth slowdown may cause large spillover effects to its neighboring economies. Using a multi-sectoral global computable general equilibrium model, this paper quantitatively investigates the impacts of a growth slowdown in the PRC for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011441148
I fit a high-dimensional macroeconomic dataset of 41 countries to a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model to examine the role of the recent Chinese economic slowdown for international inflation dynamics. I identify Chinese supply and demand shocks and examine their contributions to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011823598
China's transition to a new growth model continues and the impact has been felt across the globe. Several trends … contribute to the 'maturing' of China's economy: i) structural slowing on the convergence path; ii) on-shoring deepening; and iii … developments, the overall impact on the global economy is not large. However, the impact on China's closest trading partners and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012977756
After many years of rapid expansion, China's growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with … financial markets. It finds that countries with closer trade linkages with China (Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and net … points in response to a decline in China's growth by 1 percentage point depending on the model used and the nature of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012977796
China’s unprecedented growth rate in the last decade is driven by its role as the global manufacturing powerhouse, but …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013233251
This paper investigates whether movements in the Bank of England's interest rate hindered the development of the United States by transmitting or amplifying crises during the first age of financial globalisation. Evidence that US monetary and financial developments entered into the Bank's...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012925215
We show that the cross-autocorrelation also exists in the global CDS markets and develop an econometric model to capture the global correlation structure. We study implications on the credit risk transmission and contagion risk. We find four main results: (i) credit risk transmission is through...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013232360
This paper provides new indices of global macroeconomic uncertainty and investigates the cross-country transmission of uncertainty using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. The indices measure the dispersion of forecasts that results from parameter uncertainty in the GVAR. Relying on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012233069
We investigate heterogeneity and spillovers in macro-financial linkages across developed economies, with a particular emphasis in the most recent recession. A panel Bayesian VAR model including real and financial variables identifies a statistically significant common component, which turns out...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013097758