This paper introduces bond market order flow as a predictor variable in term structuremodels and provides evidence that order flow has forecasting ability over and above thatof forward rates. Both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts show that models includ-ing interdealer order flow outperform...

This paper investigates the process of price discovery in government bond markets.By using a new data set including interdealer trades, customer trades, trade types anddealer identities, the paper explores the role of dealers in the price formation processand seeks to identify their sources of...