This article provides new insights into the cyclical behavior of consumer and producer real wages in the USA and Germany. We apply two methods for the estimation of the cyclical components from the data: the approach based on the structural time series models and the ARIMA-model-based approach...

This article presents a robust augmented Kalman filter that extends the data-cleaning filter (Masreliez and Martin, 1977) to the general state space model featuring nonstationary and regression effects. The robust filter shrinks the observations towards their one-step-ahead prediction based on...

This paper sheds new light on the mutual relationship between investor sentiment and excess returns corresponding to the bubble component of stock prices. We propose to use the wavelet concept of the phase angle to determine the lead-lag relation between these variables. The wavelet phase angle...

Structural change affects the estimation of economic signals, like the underlying growth rate or the seasonally adjusted series. An important issue, which has at- tracted a great deal of attention also in the seasonal adjustment literature, is its detection by an expert procedure. The...

EuroMInd-D is a density estimate of monthly gross domestic product (GDP) constructed according to a bottom-up approach, pooling the density estimates of eleven GDP components, by output and expenditure type. The components density estimates are obtained from a medium-size dynamic factor model of...