Monetary policy is most effective when public beliefs about future policies are actively managed. This is the appeal of policy rules and commitment strategies, typically absent under discretion. But when a policymaker has some private information - as is the case in reality - belief management...

This article presents a computationally efficient approach to sample from Gaussian state space models. The method is an instance of precision-based sampling methods that operate on the inverse variance-covariance matrix of the states (also known as precision). The novelty is to handle cases...

This paper studies the joint dynamics of U.S. inflation and a term structure of average inflation predictions taken from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). We estimate these joint dynamics by combining an unobserved components (UC) model of inflation and a sticky‐information...