In this paper an Unobserved Components Model is employed to decompose U.S. real GDP into trend and cycle components … the long-run development during the last 50 years can be represented by a segmented linear trend with a break in the drift …

. Estimates show that the trend and cycle innovations are positively correlated. There is evidence suggesting that trend output … growth has slowdown in the past decade. The Bayes factor result indicates that the GDP trend is better modeled as a …

The Hodrick-Prescott filter is a popular tool in macroeconomics for decomposing a time series into a smooth trend and a … regulations and policy changes generally lead to similar behaviours. Thus, those events should be absorbed by the trend component … of the trend-cycle decomposition, but the Hodrick-Prescott filter does not allow for jumps. We propose a modification of …