This paper attempts to provide a decision-theoretic foundation for the measurement of economic tail risk, which is not only closely related to utility theory but also relevant to statistical model uncertainty. The main result is that the only risk measures that satisfy a set of economic axioms...

For the past century, electric utilities and grid operators have both owned and operated resources to maintain the reliability of the grid. This reliability has been controlled through investments in generation, transmission, and distribution assets. Today, a growing number of previously passive...

We study (interim correlated) rationalizability in a game with incomplete information. We characterize the recursive set of possible rationalizable hierarchies through a finite automaton and provide a revelation principle that characterizes the distributions over these hierarchies that arise...

This study examines whether investors could use Benford's Law as an aid in determining high-risk areas for investing within their process of decision-making. The business reporting standard XBRL offers the opportunity to easily extract and analyze a sufficient number of monetary items out of...

The business press generally reports news in quarterly earnings announcements based on the difference between actual earnings and two salient benchmarks: earnings of the same quarter in the previous year, and a consensus drawn from a distribution of forecasts by financial analysts. We evaluate...

This study provides empirical evidence for the efficacy of deriving firms' earnings forecasts from predictions of the complete, conditional probability density function (pdf). Relative to cross-sectional earnings forecasts based on OLS regressions, improvements of accuracy, bias and measures for...

The business reporting standard XBRL offers the opportunity to easily extract and analyze a sufficient number of monetary items out of single annual reports for statistical analysis purposes. Using XBRL 10-K reports filed with the SEC EDGAR system, we derive first digit distributions for single...