A simple and readily computable algorithm is developed for approximating the low moments of order deviates from any continuous distribution. The results are compared with those obtained from exact closed form moments, obtained from quadrature as well as other non-Monte Carlo integral computations

Important choices for efficient and accurate evaluation of marginal likelihoods by means of Monte Carlo simulation methods are studied for the case of highly non-elliptical posterior distributions. We focus on the situation where one makes use of importance sampling or the independence chain...

We propose methods for constructing regularized mixtures of density forecasts. We explore a variety of objectives and regularization penalties, and we use them in a substantive exploration of Eurozone inflation and real interest rate density forecasts. All individual inflation forecasters (even...