We conducted an anonymous survey in December 2013 asking around 200 economists worldwide to provide an interval (a to b) of average inflation in the US expected "over the next two years". The respondents were also instructed to give a probability of inflation being higher or lower than the...

This study proposes a direct estimation method for recovering subjective probability distributions from option prices. We find that the subjective cumulative distribution function and subjective statistics are represented as static portfolios composed of plain vanilla options. The portfolio...

The hypothesis of this study conducted 50 years ago, is that individuals presented with the same information base cannot agree on their assessments of the subjective probability distribution for a particular variable of interest. Moreover, this is caused by an inability to translate judgment and...