We provide an extreme value analysis of the returns of Bitcoin. A particular focus is on the tail risk characteristics and we will provide an in-depth univariate extreme value analysis. Those properties will be compared to the traditional exchange rates of the G10 currencies versus the US...

The data on JIFs provided by Thomson Scientific can only be considered as a sample since they do not cover the entire universe of those documents that cite an intellectual output (paper, article, etc) or are cited by others. Then, questions arise if the empirical distribution (best fit to the...

A compound Poisson distribution is a sum of independent and identically distributed random variables over a count variable that follows a Poisson distribution. Generally, its distribution is not tractable. However, it has many practical applications that require the estimation of the quantile...

This paper considers sampling proportional to expected size from a partly unknown distribution. The applied context is the exploration for undiscovered resources, like oil accumulations in different deposits, where the most promising deposits are likely to be drilled first, based on some...

In this paper we provide a review of copula theory with applications to finance. We illustrate the idea on the bivariate framework and discuss the simple, elliptical and Archimedean classes of copulae. Since the copulae model the dependency structure between random variables, next we explain the...

A new measure of asymmetry in dependence is proposed which is based on taking the difference between the margin-free coskewness parameters of the underlying copula. The new measure and a related test are applied to both a hydrological and a financial market data sample and we show that both...

If you put two mounds of sugar with identical conditions near an ants' nest, which one will the ants congregate at? Kirman explained the process of ant social herding using a simple model, and he conducted an interesting simulation. The fat tail distribution in the security market is well known,...

This paper considers the problem of point prediction based on a predictive distribution, representing the uncertainty about the outcome. The issue explored is the reporting of a single characteristic, typically the mean, the median or the mode, in the context of a skewed distribution and...

I provide a measure of time-varying tail risk in credit markets based on a dynamic power-law model. Credit tail risk is estimated from extreme price fluctuations of credit default swaps (CDS) on government debt. Tail returns are described by a power-law for core and peripheral countries within...

We propose two structural models for stochastic losses given default which allow to model the credit losses of a portfolio of defaultable financial instruments. The credit losses are integrated into a structural model of default events accounting for correlations between the default events and...