From a banking supervisory perspective, this paper analyses aspects of market risk of an aggregated trading portfolio comprised of the trading books of 11 German banks with a regulatory approved internal market risk model. Based on real, clean profit and loss data and Value-at-Risk estimates of...

Macroeconomic time series often involve a threshold effect in their ARMA representation, and exhibit long memory features. In this paper we introduce a new class of threshold ARFIMA models to account for this. The threshold effect is introduced in the autoregressive and/or the fractional...

The Regression Kink (RK) design is an increasingly popular empirical method, with more than 20 studies circulated using RK in the last 5 years since the initial circulation of Card, Lee, Pei and Weber (2012). We document empirically that these estimates, which typically use local linear...

From a banking supervisory perspective, this paper analyses aspects of market risk of an aggregated trading portfolio comprised of the trading books of 11 German banks with a regulatory approved internal market risk model. Based on real, clean profit and loss data and Value-at-Risk estimates of...

At least since [1], a broad class of multiple comparison procedures, so-called simultaneous test procedures (STPs), is established in the statistical literature. Elements of an STP are a testing family, consisting of a set of null hypotheses and corresponding test statistics, and a common...

We consider a special class of multiple testing problems, consisting of M simultaneous point hypothesis tests in local statistical experiments. Under certain structural assumptions the global hypothesis contains exactly one element v* (say), and v* is least favourable parameter configuration...

This paper proposes a new statistical technique for deciding which of two theories is better supported by a given set of data while allowing for the possibility of drawing no conclusion at all. Procedurally similar to the classical hypothesis test, the proposed technique features three, as...

We consider a cross-calibration test of predictions by multiple potential experts in a stochastic environment. This test checks whether each expert is calibrated conditional on the predictions made by other experts. We show that this test is good in the sense that a true expert - one informed of...

Marketers often use A/B testing as a tool to compare marketing treatments in a test stage and then deploy the better-performing treatment to the remainder of the consumer population. While these tests have traditionally been analyzed using hypothesis testing, we re-frame them as an explicit...