A Stochastic Arbitrage Opportunity is defined as a zero-cost investment portfolio that enhances every feasible benchmark portfolio for all admissible utility functions. The present study provides a formal theory of consistent estimation of the set of arbitrage opportunities and an Empirical...

When benchmarking production units by non-parametric methods like data envelopment analysis (DEA), an assumption has to be made about the returns to scale of the underlying technology. Moreover, it is often also relevant to compare the frontiers across samples of producers. Until now, no exact...

We propose an econometric procedure to test for the presence of overconfidence using data collected by ranking experiments. Our approach applies the techniques from the moment inequality literature. Although a ranking experiment is a typical way to collect data for the analysis of...

We relate models based on costs of switching beliefs (e.g. due to inattention) to hypothesis tests. Specifically, for an inference problem with a penalty for mistakes and for switching the inferred value, a band of inaction is optimal. We show this band is equivalent to a confidence interval,...

A decision maker tests whether the gradient of the loss function evaluated at a judgmental decision is zero. If the test does not reject, the action is the judgmental decision. If the test rejects, the action sets the gradient equal to the boundary of the rejection region. This statistical...

In contrast to conventional measures, the Focused Information Criterion (FIC) allows the purpose-specific selection of models, thereby reflecting the idea that one kind of model might be appropriate for inferences on a parameter of interest, but not for another. Ever since its invention, the FIC...

Models can be wrong and recognising their limitations is important in financial and economic decision making under uncertainty. Robust strategies, which are least sensitive to perturbations of the underlying model, take uncertainty into account. Finding the explicit set of alternative models...

We derive the continuity properties of the CDF of a random variable defined as a saddle-type point of a real valued continuous stochastic process on a compact metric space. This result facilitates the derivation of first order asymptotic properties of tests for stochastic spanning w.r.t. some...

Abstract A nonparametric method for comparing multiple forecast models is developed and implemented. The hypothesis of Optimal Predictive Ability generalizes the Superior Predictive Ability hypothesis from a single given loss function to an entire class of loss functions. Distinction is drawn...