This paper extends the widely used Lee Carter (LC) model (Lee & Carter, 1992) for mortality projection. We suggest a random walk with drift to model the time parameter of the Bayesian extension of the LC model suggested in Czado et al. (2005). In a validation-based examination, the proposed...

The Lee-Carter model, the dominant mortality projection modeling in the literature, was criticized for its homoscedastic error assumption. This was corrected in extensions to the model based on the assumption that the number of deaths follows Poisson or negative binomial distributions. We...