We compare quantitatively eight stochastic models explaining improvements in mortality rates in England &Wales and in the US. On the basis of the Bayes Information Criterion (BIC), we find that an extension of the Cairns, Blake & Dowd (2006b) model that incorporates the cohort effect fits the...

In the first part of the paper, we consider the wide range of extrapolative stochastic mortality models that have been proposed over the last 15-20 years. A number of models that we consider are framed in discrete time and place emphasis on the statistical aspects of modelling and forecasting....

Basis risk is an important consideration when hedging longevity risk with instruments based on longevity indices, since the longevity experience of the hedged exposure may differ from that of the index. As a result, any decision to execute an index-based hedge requires a framework for (1)...

We use a case study of a pension plan wishing to hedge the longevity risk in its pension liabilities at a future date. The plan has the choice of using either a customised hedge or an index hedge, with the degree of hedge effectiveness being closely related to the correlation between the value...

This paper updates Living with Mortality published in 2006. It describes how the longevity risk transfer market has developed over the intervening period, and, in particular, how insurance-based solutions – buy-outs, buy-ins and longevity insurance – have triumphed over capital markets...

The mortality rate dynamics between two related but different-sized populations are modeled consistently using a new stochastic mortality model that we call the gravity model. The larger spreads (or deviations) relative to the evolution of the former, but the spreads in the period and cohort...

We propose a general framework that can be used to analyse the mortality experience of a large portfolio of lives. The objective of the framework is to provide a firm evidence base to support the setting of future mortality assumptions for the portfolio as a whole or subgroup-by-subgroup. The...

We use a case study of a pension plan wishing to hedge the longevity risk in its pension liabilities at a future date. The plan has the choice of using either a customized hedge or an index hedge, with the degree of hedge effectiveness being closely related to the correlation between the value...

Governments are among the few agencies that can help the private sector hedge against the increasing problem of aggregate longevity risk. David Blake, Tom Boardman, Andrew Cairns and Kevin Dowd from the Pensions Institute at Cass Business School urge governments to issue longevity bonds as soon...

This study sets out a framework to evaluate the goodness of fit of stochastic mortality models and applies it to six different models estimated using English & Welsh male mortality data. The methodology exploits the structure of each model to obtain various residual series that are predicted to...