We provide a systematic analysis of fiscal consolidation in a dynamic general equilibrium model with a detailed government sector and a share of credit-constrained households. We simulate permanent cuts in government consumption, government investment, and transfer payments as well as permanent...

We investigate the firm level investment responses to narrative shocks to average personal and corporate tax rates using a universal micro dataset of publicly traded U.S firms for the post- 1962 period. By allowing for heterogeneous effects over the business cycle and accompanying monetary...

This paper studies how investment tax incentives stimulate output in an estimated medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. We find that the horizon following a positive shock to investment tax incentives is crucial. The shock is highly expansionary in the long run, with the...

This paper reviews the existing evidence on the effects of tax reforms on output levels and growth over the short and long run from different strands of the literature. It develops and applies criteria to evaluate the usefulness of ex-post estimates to predict the effects of tax reforms ex-ante....

In this paper, I estimate a structural panel vector autoregression to study the consequences of changes in U.S. state government fiscal policies for local economic activity in the short-term. My main result is that the state-level spending multiplier is relatively small and the tax multiplier...

This paper reviews the existing evidence on the effects of tax reforms on output levels and growth over the short and long run from different strands of the literature. It develops and applies criteria to evaluate the usefulness of ex-post estimates to predict the effects of tax reforms ex-ante....

A number of recent studies regress a "narratively" identified measure of a macroeconomic shock directly on an outcome variable. In this note, we argue that this approach can be viewed as the reduced-form regression of an instrumental variable approach in which the narrative time series is used...

Using the bottom-up approach of Romer and Romer (2010), we construct a rich narrative dataset of net-revenue fiscal shocks for Germany by reconstructing and extending the tax shock series of Hayo and Uhl (2014) and coding a shock series for social security contributions, benefits and transfers....

How should public debt be managed when uncertainty about the business cycle is widespread and debt levels are high, as in the aftermath of the last financial crisis? This paper analyzes optimal fiscal policy with ambiguity aversion and endogenous government spending. We show that, without...

This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of tax changes in the EU between 2000 and 2016. The novelty of our approach hinges on the use of real-time estimates of discretionary fiscal adjustments, covering personal income taxes, social insurance contributions, corporate income taxes and value...