The effective management of uncertainty and complexity in premium pricing and reserve accumulation processes provide new challenges to the decision- and policy- makers. In this regard, the implementation of complex mathematical tools and advanced statistical techniques is highly acquired. Over...

We present a stochastic simulation forecasting model for stress testing aimed at assessing banks' capital adequacy, financial fragility and probability of default. The paper provides a theoretical presentation of the methodology and the essential features of the forecasting model on which it is...

We present a stochastic simulation forecasting model to stress-test banks' capital adequacy and to estimate probability of infringement of regulatory capital ratios and default probability. The stochastic methodology proposed is based on a simplified reduced model that provides a manageable...

In the Input-Output Analytic framework, production (X) is related to final demand (C) through the B [while B= INV(I-A), where A is the technical coefficients matrix and INV(.) means inverted (.)], such that X=BC. Generally, the elements of A and C are considered to be non-stochastic and...

In commercial fisheries, stock collapse is an intrinsic problem caused by overexploitation or due to pure stochasticity. To analyze the risk of stock collapse, we apply a relatively simple Monte Carlo approach which can capture complex stock dynamics. We use an economic model with downward...

Recently, Batabyal and Yoo (2007) have proposed a new probabilistic approach to orchard management. In this approach, a manager minimizes an economic criterion function, namely, the long run expected net cost of orchard management subject to an ecological constraint which says that the...

This study presents a multispecies stochastic model. The model suggests optimal fishing policy for two species in a three species predator prey ecosystem in the Barents Sea. We have employed stochastic dynamic programing to solve a three dimensional model, where catch is optimized by a...

Actions taken by a manager affect the health of the keystone species of an ecological-economic system. In turn, the health of these keystone species largely determines the resilience of the underlying ecological-economic system. What are the nexuses between managerial actions, keystone species,...

Recently, Batabyal and Yoo (2007) have proposed a new probabilistic approach to orchard management. In this approach, a manager minimizes an economic criterion function, namely, the long run expected net cost of orchard management subject to an ecological constraint which says that the...

Actions taken by a manager affect the health of the keystone species of an ecological-economic system. In turn, the health of these keystone species largely determines the resilience of the underlying ecological-economic system. What are the nexuses between managerial actions, keystone species,...