This paper investigates price jumps in commodity markets. We find that jumps are rare and extreme events but occur less frequently than in stock markets. Nonetheless, jump correlations across commodities can be high depending on the commodity sectors. Energy, metal and grains commodities show...

We propose a novel representation of commodity spot prices in which the cost-of-carry and the spot price volatility are both driven by an arbitrary number of risk factors, nesting many existing specifications. The model exhibits unspanned stochastic volatility, provides simple closed-form...

We analyse the dynamic behavior of conditional volatility in commodity markets using a novel, manually collected dataset of daily price ranges over a time span of more than 140 years, which allows more precise daily volatility estimates than are otherwise prevalent in the commodity literature....

We propose a factor state-space approach with stochastic volatility to model and forecast the term structure of future contracts on commodities. Our approach builds upon the dynamic 3-factor Nelson-Siegel model and its 4-factor Svensson extension and assumes for the latent level, slope and...

Low income households, especially in the developing countries could suffer losses due to weather related events such as drought, hurricanes, floods etc. Such losses could cast a household into a chronic poverty cycle - a poverty trap from which the household may find it difficult to re-emerge....

This study presents a set of closed-form exact solutions for pricing discretely sampled variance swaps and volatility swaps, based on the Heston stochastic volatility model with regime switching. In comparison with all the previous studies in the literature, this research, which obtains...

Empirical evidence shows that, in equity options markets, the slope of the skew is largely independent of the volatility level. Single-factor stochastic volatility models are not flexible enough to account for the stochastic behavior of the skew. On the other hand, multifactor stochastic...

With the success of variable annuities, insurance companies are piling up large risks in terms of both equity and fixed income assets. These risks should be properly modeled as the resulting dynamic hedging strategy is very sensitive to the modeling assumptions. The current literature has been...

We introduce a new stochastic volatility model that includes, as special instances, the Heston (1993) and the 3/2 model of Heston (1997) and Platen (1997). Our model exhibits important features: first, instantaneous volatility can be uniformly bounded away from zero, and second, our model is...

Explicitly taking into account the risk incurred when borrowing at a shorter tenor versus lending at a longer tenor ("roll-over risk"), we construct a stochastic model framework for the term structure of interest rates in which a frequency basis (i.e. a spread applied to one leg of a swap to...