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Uncertainty and labor market fluctuations

Jo, Soojin; Lee, Justin J. - 2019

impacts on the macroeconomy and labor market. We find firms defer hiring as the real option value of waiting increases …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012030061

A tale of two countries: a comparison of the aggregate effects of sectoral reallocation in the United States and Germany

Reicher, Christopher Phillip - 2011

stochastic volatility model of sectoral employment growth. Reallocative shocks have no effect on the natural rate of unemployment … volatility …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009232258

The aggregate effects of long run sectoral reallocation

Reicher, Christopher Phillip - 2011

In this paper, I estimate a series of long run reallocative shocks to sectoral employment using a stochastic volatility … ; stochastic volatility …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009232259

Agency business cycles

Golosov, Michail Ju.; Menzio, Guido - In: Theoretical economics : TE ; an open access journal in … 15 (2020) 1, pp. 123-158

We develop a theory of endogenous and stochastic fluctuations in economic activity. Individual firms choose to randomize over firing or keeping workers who performed poorly in the past to give them an ex-ante incentive to exert effort. Different firms choose to correlate the outcome of their...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012159036

Agency Business Cycles

Golosov, Mikhail - 2015

We propose a new business cycle theory. Firms need to randomize over firing or keeping workers who have performed poorly in the past, in order to give them an ex-ante incentive to exert effort. Firms have an incentive to coordinate the outcome of their randomizations, as coordination allows them...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013012277

Intertwined Real and Monetary Stochastic Business Cycles

Kakarot-Handtke, Egmont - 2015

There is no such thing as a 'real' economy. The task, therefore, is to consistently reconstruct the fluctuations of employment and output from the interactions of real and nominal variables. The present paper does exactly this. No nonempirical concepts like utility, equilibrium, rationality,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013036291

Dynamic and Stochastic Search Equilibrium

Morales-Jimenez, Camilo - 2022

I study the business cycle properties of wage posting models with random search, for which the distributions of employment and wages play a nontrivial role for the equilibrium path. In fact, the main result of this paper is that the distribution of firms is one of the most important elements to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013293226

A Bayesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of stock market bubbles and business cycles

Miao, Jianjun; Wang, Pengfei; Xu, Zhiwei - In: Quantitative economics : QE ; journal of the … 6 (2015) 3, pp. 599-635

We present an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of stock market bubbles and business cycles using Bayesian methods. Bubbles emerge through a positive feedback loop mechanism supported by self-fulfilling beliefs. We identify a sentiment shock that drives the movements of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011757753

The evolving transmission of uncertainty shocks in the United Kingdom

Mumtaz, Haroon - In: Econometrics : open access journal 4 (2016) 1, pp. 1-18

This paper investigates if the impact of uncertainty shocks on the U.K. economy has changed over time. To this end, we propose an extended time-varying VAR model that simultaneously allows the estimation of a measure of uncertainty and its time-varying impact on key macroeconomic and financial...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011505897

The effect of the great moderation on the US business cycle in a time-varying multivariate trend-cycle model

Creal, Drew; Koopman, Siem Jan; Zivot, Eric - 2008

accounts for time variation in macroeconomic volatility, known as the great moderation. In particular, we consider an … volatility processes and mixture distributions for the irregular components and the common cycle disturbances enable us to … that time-varying volatility is only present in the a selection of idiosyncratic components while the coefficients driving …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011376640

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