Despite the fact that many aggregates are nonlinear functions and the aggregation weights of many macroeconomic aggregates are time-varying, much of the literature on forecasting aggregates considers the case of linear aggregates with fixed, time-invariant aggregation weights. In this study a...

This paper studies the joint dynamics of real-time U.S. inflation and average inflation predictions of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) based on sample ranging from 1968Q4 to 2017Q2. The joint data generating process (DGP) comprises an unobserved components (UC) model of inflation...

This paper studies the joint dynamics of U.S. inflation and the average inflation predictions of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) on a sample running from 1968Q4 to 2014Q2. The joint data generating process (DGP) of these data consists of the unobserved components (UC) model of Stock...

This paper studies the joint dynamics of real time U.S. inflation and the mean inflation predictions of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) on a 1968Q4 to 2017Q2 sample. The joint data generating process (DGP) is an unobserved components (UC) model of inflation and a sticky information...

This paper investigates, in a particular parametric framework, the geometric meaning of joint unpredictability for a bivariate discrete process. In particular, the paper provides a characterization of the joint unpredictability in terms of distance between information sets in an Hilbert space.